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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – TIGERS

While many would like to describe the last 3 weeks of market trading as a healthy correction and a trend confirmed, others will be noting the shift in volatility and correlations. The central question for 2018 is whether we have decided to ride a tiger and now are afraid of getting off – the FOMO (Fear-of-missing-out) elliptical rally changed last week into a more fatalistic bounce back to trend, a forced by-the-dip. The risk-reward for owning equities over bonds remains central to the trend up, mixed with the US tax reform support and the inflation fears. The reality abroad maybe something different and that will be the story to focus upon in the next few weeks as the Italian election, the new Merkel coalition and the ongoing Brexit talks drag the ECB decisions back to a weaker political reality over the risks of too easy money policy. The EUR/USD relationship represents the balancing act of the tiger trends ride – where easy money meets politics, as the US has discovered, deficit spending amidst full employment stoking even more growth begets inflation. The elixir that drove many to invest in the US in 2016 and 2017 now proves to be a curse. The threat for Europe rests with the ECB tapering and rate normalization process as it collides with the switch from Draghi to Weidmann. The risk of 1.25 EUR ending the USD selling and switching the paradigm of fear of US deficits to something else – like an FOMC raising rates to match real growth – or perhaps of real rates driving global capital flows. Where the tiger runs regardless of the rider maybe the short-term factor that determines the danger of a dismount.

THOUGHT PIECE
Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

A SAFE PLACE TO HIDE – INFLATION AND THE BOND MARKETS

US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not The Federal Reserve is beginning to reduce its balance sheet other CBs continue QE US bonds may still be a safe haven but a hawkish Fed makes short duration vulnerable Short dated UK Gilts make be a safe place to hide, come the correction in stocks

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE TRACK RESEARCH JANUARY IDEA DINNER – CAVE CANEM

The first idea dinner for 2018 was noisy and full of questions, some compared it to that of a barking dog, full of fright but without teeth. The group of analysts, traders, portfolio managers and investors had plenty to discuss, but focused on the central question of what is already different in the 2018 – the new lunar year of the dog - as opposed to 2017. If 2017 was a year for passive, long-only investing, then 2018 has continued much of that with equities up globally, the S&P500 up 0ver 6.5%, Stoxx Europe up over 4%, while Hong Kong Hang Seng soars over 10%. The easy money conditions that drove much of the risk in 2017 remain in place in Europe and Japan, at least for now, while the US FOMC is expected to hike at least 2 times.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK - JITTERS

While Asian shares continue to trade near 10-year highs, Europe stalls with the news just not enough to make the mood upbeat as US talk of Trump supporting Taylor for FOMC Chair next drives everyone to Taylor rule calculations and rates higher faster. The USD is holding bid, EM lost some of its luster along with gold while oil is higher as Iraq continues to play hardball with the Kurds over independence. The German ZEW was weaker than expected but hardly weak. The UK is holding tough as UK May had a constructive dinner with EU last night – holding out for hopes of a talks still while UK CPI was at 5 year highs and BOE testimony talks of a rate hike in November but not much more. The GBP does better than the EUR but the USD is back in the driving seat with the focus on rates. The only chart that matters today is going to be the 10Y to see if US can break out – but with IP and import prices the news agenda that may be hard to do. Jitters aren’t the same as panic and the fear factors moving markets are just not in place to offset any of the other stories like 3Q earnings.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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