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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - TACTICS

The difference between tactical trading and strategic investing seems to be the key ahead of the ECB and BOJ meetings this week. Some asset classes are more inclined than others to trade by story. Equities, in particular, like a good yarn to drive money flows, like Alphabet making gobs of money, providing a longer-term perspective on the shorter-term pain from regulation fear. For bonds, tactical trading around the almost magical level of 10-year US yields 3% seems more important. The longer-term story of FOMC rate hikes inevitably leading to higher rates gets lost. The USD seems to be caught between such tactical considerations and the bigger strategic stories about geopolitical fears and US inspired growth with the 1Q GDP data at the end of the week the key glue mixing both together. Buying the dip of the USD in the last month worked but not at all like the same tactic for equities. Volatility is the key differentiator and may remain so. The power of economic data overnight was less important than the political noises. Sure. Australian 1Q CPI missed and the A$ is making new yearly lows, but that isn’t just about the RBA reaction function. The focus on China easing and money running to equities matters more. PBOC sources leak to the price more RRR cuts and higher M2 is coming, driving up equities. German IFO was weaker but rebased while French confidence drops and Italy holds. UK deficits are smaller and they actually see the C/A improving – all of which left rates watching the US and FX doing nothing. The overnight list of political stories driving EM looks important – from the Armenian PM quitting after huge protests, to the US extending its deadline for investors on sanctions regarding Rusal, driving down metals prices sharply, to Italy’s Five Star setbacks in local elections putting its bid to control the new government at risk, to the Nicaraguan protests over social security reform boiling over to anti-Ortega riots leaving the US and others pulling diplomats. Populism in LATAM from Venezuela to Nicaragua to even Mexico and Brazil looks costly. Socialism works until you run out of other people’s money. The US headlines maybe more about Trump and Macron and their talks over Iran and their joint press conference this morning on trade and climate change. The EUR and the NZD were the dogs overnight in G7 and may be the key to understanding how much more you can get from US rates today.

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Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

INFLATION OR EMPLOYMENT

Inflationary fears are growing and US rates continue to rise Employment has become more flexible since the crisis of 2008/2009 Commodity prices have risen but from multi-year lows During the next recession job losses will rapidly temper inflationary pressures

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK – GOOD FRIDAY

Today is a holiday and this will be short – there was important news overnight and that will put the holiday weekend in perspective. Happy Easter and Passover. Geopolitics first – Trump threatens the South Korea trade pact if the talks with the North don’t have denuclearization as key. “I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea,” Trump said yesterday in his Ohio speech. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? Because it’s a very strong card.” Economics second – the EU flash inflation was higher in Italy and France while in Japan it was lower. The threat of inflation remains central to rate hiking risks and its just not conclusive for faster action. Markets third – the rally extended in Japan and China overnight for equities. The tech jitters have subsided despite Trump bravado on attacking Amazon yesterday. For trading markets into Monday expect the focus to remain on JPY. The USD/JPY won’t like the threat of talk failures and linking trade success to North Korea. This linkage will clearly extend to China. The rebound in equities this week has been in part due to that hope that the South Korea pact foreshadows China talks. The other point for JPY is in the Tankan where the data on employment and industrial production today highlight risks for a slowing economy and that won’t sit well. If prices don’t go up, the pressure on Abe and the BOJ will accelerate and JPY buying maybe something to watch – 100 before 110? In order for USD bulls to get excited you need to burst back over 107.75 (the 55-day).

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE MARCH TRACK IDEA DINNER - WHAT KIND OF ANIMAL ARE YOU?

Track Research hosted its end of March Idea Dinner with a boisterous crowd of analysts, portfolio managers, investors and traders. The focus of the dinner was on the risks and rewards for the rest of the year. As we end of the 1st Quarter of 2018, now is the time to reflect on what we have learned about 2018 so far and what it will do for how we trade and invest into 2Q and beyond. There are a number of factors to consider – 1) rising volatility and whether its here to stay, 2) rising rates and whether they are going to be too much, 3) rising debt levels and whether we have bubble risks, 4) rising trade tensions and whether that impedes global growth. Markets have always put different investors into categories, usually by the type of animal – bull or bear, dove or hawk – so as we started the dinner, the room was asked a number of key questions for about their outlook.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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