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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – RECKONING

Dread. There is a sense of reckoning due for markets as the FOMC considers its policy and markets pay for the years of easy money and QE unwinding to neutral and beyond. If the Powell Fed distrusts R* and other models then we are navigating with dead reckoning with dot-plots and futures. The permutations for today are many with words mattering as much as actions as there is the dovish hike, the hawkish hold, and the extremes of a dovish hold along with hawkish hike. The infamous dot-plots will play a role as well with 2 hikes for 2019 down from 3 now expected – indicating to many that the line of Fed expectations is the cap rather than the floor for rates going forward. The way the Fed explains itself will matter significantly for understanding the market reaction as too dovish a tilt will add to 2020 recession fear and too hawkish will as well. This is the reckoning fear that drives the bear market globally. We are damned if they do or don’t depending on their logic. Quite clearly, the Powell Fed would like to disassociate itself from the Greenspan S&P500 put. But the oil put maybe another story as the reversal of fortune in oil prices matters to inflation rates globally, FX everywhere and to the real economy. The S&P500 put rest on the confidence game, which has been shattered since February for markets and is beginning to turn for corporations since October. This volatility of expectations drives hope for a FOMC response to financial conditions as well. Reckoning which why Powell acts and talks is now all but finished as dread and waiting for the bill dominated overnight price action. There was plenty of economic data from Japan trade deficit increases to New Zealand C/A deficits to weaker Swedish confidence and higher prices than expected in UK and Germany – none of which mattered. Rather the negative Facebook reports on privacy wall end-arounds for Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and others seems to add to risk-off gloom. Or the reality that India is now expected to rise to 5th place in global GDP pushing out the UK down to 7th. Emerging markets remain key to understanding the present fear with China and India central to 2019 forecasts for Europe and US growth. This puts the USD and Oil as the two markets that maybe the most helpful in watching risk today both before and after 2 pm.

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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE TRACK CRYPTO WEEKLY – FEAR AND LOATHING

Price action in the digital asset space continues to dominate with fear and loathing being the drivers like a bad acid trip to Las Vegas. The initial financial failure of the 1998 film based on Hunter S. Thompson’s novel is a good analogy for the present mood in digital assets. Today, the Terry Gilliam film is a cult classic. The free-spirited dreams of decentralized money clashes with the pump-and-dump reality of hype. This last week was about the demotion of the entire space to being a risky asset rather than a store of value. This is about the doubts of private money being able to replace the US Dollar. This is about new technology find economic limits. The biggest problem for investors isn’t the momentum in the price downtrend, but in the correlation to equities, particularly to the technology sector. The hope of Bitcoin becoming electronic gold has faded with the correlation of BTC to the S&P500 rising and the correlation to gold falling. A new low for Bitcoin in 2018 this week at $3269 from its January $19,862 highs – off another 14% for the week and 84% for the year – leaves the market respecting $4300 as the new key top as it was the last rung of the Fibonacci retracement support along with $3700 the failed hope for a double bottom Thursday. The bears remain in control with $2800 and $1500 the next targets. Technical oversold conditions are not sufficient to spark a sustainable rally back. The reality for crypto winter shifting to spring requires some good news and some price bounces beyond the current resistance to restart the “flywheel up” cycle. Price dynamics in the crypto coin space matters for investors. The hope that blockchain technology and its use will over-time convert investors and gain traction in the real economy still requires capital now. The death of the ICO and the return of the VC to the space is the key for reversing the present fear and loathing mood.

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A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN IN 2019 – IS IT ALREADY IN THE PRICE?

US stocks have given back all of their 2018 gains Several developed and emerging stock markets are already in bear-market territory US/China trade tensions have eased, a ‘No’ deal Brexit is priced in An opportunity to re-balance global portfolios is nigh

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Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK - STUFFED

Thanksgiving holiday in the US comes but once a year but the practice of being thankful should be a daily routine. Markets today are not practicing such and the feeling of being stuffed with food, drink and too much news hangs over any joy from yesterday’s bounce. There is a bit of respite from the lower volumes with the US markets shut. There is also a feeling that the bears have been stuffed with enough price capitulation as to make the risk of much lower prices less obvious. The usual headlines drive some hope with Italian BTPs bid again despite a lackluster sale today – Italy deputy PM Di Maio sees room for dialogue with EU, perhaps responding finally to the EU sanction risks. UK is bid on the “good progress” seen on Brexit. These are insufficient to keep equities bid in Europe. What seems to be lacking in risk appetite maybe blamed on the inevitable switch to sell bounces rather than buy dips now for risk assets. The chart that maybe worth thinking about in the context of why November is different than the obvious risk-off October comes from AUD/JPY – which clearly broke in October and recovered sharply only now its been seeping slowly back down. While today maybe a write-off for traders, its still worth thinking through what we all should be thankful for in the world, and in our portfolios.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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