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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – MARGIN

On the margin, mood for risk-taking is better today. Some see this stability as emanating from the CNY holding a dull range (fixed at the best level in 3-weeks) and not rocketing through 7 despite weaker equities and lower rates. Some see it in the benign Chinese PPI-CPI combination that supports margins that shows no real impact on inflation from the weaker CNY or trade tariffs. Others see risk coming back with the normalization of correlations, in the return of bonds offsetting stocks, as oil prices steady and as the FX markets return to real rate watching. Overnight economic data clearly mattered – with NZD the winner in the G10 space up 0.35% - as CPI surprised to the upside but volatility didn’t follow. On the negative side, the EUR is lower barely, mostly thanks to the weaker German ZEW and ignoring the noise over the Italian budget law approval and the relief rally in BTPs. UK Brexit talks and deadlines loom but main focus remains on the politics after it all with GBP higher today but on the 2-day window stuck in a range. The markets are searching for some marginal good news in the US to support this rally back up in equities with no on particularly excited about trading. For the money, CNY and NZD maybe the ones that matter but the mood for more noise is wrapped around the EUR with the risk of 1.14 still lingering over politics and budgets while 1.18 seems more a ceiling if we see it again soon. All that suggests trouble remains in store for those facing margin calls in equities.

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE SEPTEMBER TRACK IDEA DINNER – CHANGING STORIES

A good prosecutor aims to interrogate the a witness with the goal of finding a hole in the story, by asking the same question many different ways, until he gets a different story. This is what the market does daily, asking the same question, and looking for a different story. Children from an early age are the best at this – asking why? Until they get the answer they want. Sometimes they get stuck on the same fairy tale until it makes sense, and then they ask for a different story. The Summer market believed in “Goldilocks” where the FOMC and other central banks were easy, where inflation was not a problem, where blow-ups in EM were idiosyncratic, where tariffs had no effect on growth. The global economy was not-too-hot nor too-cold. However, this all seems to be changing in September, like the weather. The FOMC removal of “accommodative” from its policy statement shifted the story line of “Goldilocks” into something else. Just what that is was the key topic of debate for the September Track Idea dinner where a number of key portfolio managers, strategists and traders joined together to share their views on the markets, their best trading ideas and their worst fears. Out of the dinner we have the usual geopolitical list of concerns and questions including – 1) US Trade Policy – tariffs and sanctions; 2) Trump foreign policy – Iran, North Korea, China, Turkey, Venezuela, Russia; 3) EU politics – the Italian budget deficit (is 2.4% of GDP too much?!), German coalition (is Merkel at risk again?); 4) US Current Account and USD weakness – do rates matter? 5) Brexit – is there an election risk in 1Q 2019 with a Stalinist Corbyn, is there a deal delay possible and does the mean more uncertainty; 6) EM meltdown – are markets too sanguine over the risk for an extended downturn and a more difficult FX/capital outflow story. 7) Global Trust – is this the peak of western democracy and global convergence? 8) China and growth – is there a risk to growth apart from the US tariffs/global trade hit? Is Xi more vulnerable than reported? Is the US too optimistic about tariffs hurting China.

THOUGHT PIECE
Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

UK FINANCIAL SERVICES – OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS POST-BREXIT – SHORT-TERM PAIN, LONG-TERM GAIN?

A Brexit deal is still no closer, but trade will not cease even if the March deadline passes In the short-term UK and EU economic growth will suffer Medium-term new arrangements will hold back capital investment Long-term, there are a host of opportunities, in time they will eclipse the threats

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK – GOOD FRIDAY

Today is a holiday and this will be short – there was important news overnight and that will put the holiday weekend in perspective. Happy Easter and Passover. Geopolitics first – Trump threatens the South Korea trade pact if the talks with the North don’t have denuclearization as key. “I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea,” Trump said yesterday in his Ohio speech. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? Because it’s a very strong card.” Economics second – the EU flash inflation was higher in Italy and France while in Japan it was lower. The threat of inflation remains central to rate hiking risks and its just not conclusive for faster action. Markets third – the rally extended in Japan and China overnight for equities. The tech jitters have subsided despite Trump bravado on attacking Amazon yesterday. For trading markets into Monday expect the focus to remain on JPY. The USD/JPY won’t like the threat of talk failures and linking trade success to North Korea. This linkage will clearly extend to China. The rebound in equities this week has been in part due to that hope that the South Korea pact foreshadows China talks. The other point for JPY is in the Tankan where the data on employment and industrial production today highlight risks for a slowing economy and that won’t sit well. If prices don’t go up, the pressure on Abe and the BOJ will accelerate and JPY buying maybe something to watch – 100 before 110? In order for USD bulls to get excited you need to burst back over 107.75 (the 55-day).

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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OBSERVATION

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