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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK - DIVERGENCE

There is positive divergence this Monday as markets expect little for the week in terms of economic news or big decisions. The focus is on central bankers with their minutes and their speeches going into the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium. This means that the news behind the news drives markets and there was plenty of it last night – here is a partial list to get you going as Monday starts early. Note that Turkey which has been the headline risk barometer for the last 2 weeks is on holiday all this week. This passes the baton of fear to other stories. • Shots were fired at the US embassy in Ankara – USD/TRY is higher – back over 6 – with focus on US new sanctions and escalation in the battle over the US Pastor release and Turkish bank fines. Also, Moody’s and S&P cut Turkish debt 1 notch – as most expected on Friday. • China and the US trade talks start Wednesday with path to Xi/Trump meeting in November. • China shadow banking continues to shrink, according to Moody’s. Shadow banking assets as a share of GDP dropping to around 73% at the end of June 2018 from 79% at the end of 2017 and the peak of 87% at the end of 2016. In absolute terms, shadow banking assets fell by RMB2.7 trillion in the first six months of 2018 to RMB62.9 trillion. "We expect the contraction in shadow banking assets to moderate in the rest of 2018, as regulators are taking a more gradualist approach in response to slower domestic credit growth and a more challenging external environment," noted Michael Taylor, a Moody's Chief Credit Officer for Asia Pacific. • Italy plans to roll out a new infrastructure package in September. After the tragic Genoa bridge collapse the new government plans to spend E80bn on better infrastructure. The plan is to invoke the “golden rule” which removes public investments from the budget deficit – used by the UK Brown previously – seen as smashing of EU rules. • Oil markets focus on OPEC production as Iran reiterated that "no member country should be allowed to take over another member's share of oil exports. "This also comes at a time when questions continue to swirl regarding the stability of Libyan oil production. • Merkel and Putin discuss Syria and Ukraine. The push of Putin to normalize relations with Germany is seen as taking an opportunity caused from US trade and foreign policy disruptions. The Kremlin said the pair discussed the transit of gas to Europe from Russia, the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, the Iran nuclear deal, and the consequences of the US administration’s trade and economic policies for third countries. Replacing the TRY for another risk barometer means focus on CNY, JPY and CHF and their crosses. The relationship of Japan to China and investments abroad maybe the quiet issue that captures FX risks driving other money flows in bonds and stocks.

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TRACK JULY IDEA DINNER – GROWTH AND POLITICS

The balancing act for July has been global growth outstripping fears of political trade and currency drama, along with FOMC policy mistake doubts, Brexit troubles, populist politics rising and China growth missteps. The increase in volatility for 2018 stalled a bit into summer along with volumes as many appeared to follow the season, go to the beach, sell volatility, buy carry and wait it out until Autumn. Whether this works out seems to lean on actual growth data for 3Q and 2Q corporate earnings mixed with 3Q outlooks. It also appeared to shift rather dramatically last week starting Thursday with the Trump interview and Friday tweets on the USD and Rates. The July Track idea dinner brought together a great group of investors, traders, analysts and market mavens to discuss these themes.

THOUGHT PIECE
Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

CANARY IN THE COAL-MINE - EMERGING MARKET CONTAGION

Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk to Europe and Japan is significant Turkey may be the key market to watch

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK – GOOD FRIDAY

Today is a holiday and this will be short – there was important news overnight and that will put the holiday weekend in perspective. Happy Easter and Passover. Geopolitics first – Trump threatens the South Korea trade pact if the talks with the North don’t have denuclearization as key. “I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea,” Trump said yesterday in his Ohio speech. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? Because it’s a very strong card.” Economics second – the EU flash inflation was higher in Italy and France while in Japan it was lower. The threat of inflation remains central to rate hiking risks and its just not conclusive for faster action. Markets third – the rally extended in Japan and China overnight for equities. The tech jitters have subsided despite Trump bravado on attacking Amazon yesterday. For trading markets into Monday expect the focus to remain on JPY. The USD/JPY won’t like the threat of talk failures and linking trade success to North Korea. This linkage will clearly extend to China. The rebound in equities this week has been in part due to that hope that the South Korea pact foreshadows China talks. The other point for JPY is in the Tankan where the data on employment and industrial production today highlight risks for a slowing economy and that won’t sit well. If prices don’t go up, the pressure on Abe and the BOJ will accelerate and JPY buying maybe something to watch – 100 before 110? In order for USD bulls to get excited you need to burst back over 107.75 (the 55-day).

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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