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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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THOUGHT PIECE
Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

CAPITAL FLOWS – IS A RECKONING NIGH?

Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows The BIS has identified an Expansionary Lower Bound for interest rates Developed economies might not be immune to the ELB Demographic deflation will thwart growth for decades to come

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE TRACK WEEKLY CRYPTO – PHI

We are in that awkward, not-quite-Spring, phase for crypto markets. BTC Price action has been miserable but bearable as $3000 base builds and $4250 resistance holds with focus on $3800 as the pivot. Focus in crypto has been on Samsung and its crypto wallet, Jack Dorsey and his Trezor buy and Facebook and its hiring spree. The other story was about Binance and its BNB running up 140% ytd and up 10% against the USD. The headline news outside of crypto markets has been mostly supportive for risk as the equity markets have been up 10 out of 11 weeks. Focus for much of the world remains on the US/China trade talks and global growth. Technology is returns to favor and fears about the value of fiat money are creeping back into the discussions about alternatives – with EUR/Gold particularly interesting in the last week given the ECB shift to add more liquidity via TLTROs. The mood of other financial markets and assets has become an important part of the crypto world dynamic. Easy money is returning as part of the expectation for 2019 as China looks to be releveraging and Europe is following. The amount of money in global QE and the size of the negative interest bearing bonds involved are factors that support the speculation behind BTC, Blockchain and the like. The US markets are back to watching real yields and the FOMC reaction function to the rest of the world. When it comes to returns – this is where the crypto world has to stand on its own – with some spread to US 10-year bonds as the benchmark with 4-5% not enough to justify the volatility. The logic of holding risky assets rests on comparing their yield to those of less risky things – with the US 10-year bond yields seen as the base line for many such financial models. Using the daily volatility of BTC as the marker, it implies yields in crypto need to be 8-12% rather than 4-6% to matter. The other driver that matters is confidence and this is where crypto markets look for Spring as the cycle of BTC is similar to early stage technology. The peak of inflated expectations came in December 2017 and we are all waiting for the trough of disillusionment to finish. What the JPM Coin did in February and the Fidelity custodial account did this week maybe signals that this Gartner Hype Cycle is turning.

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Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK - STUFFED

Thanksgiving holiday in the US comes but once a year but the practice of being thankful should be a daily routine. Markets today are not practicing such and the feeling of being stuffed with food, drink and too much news hangs over any joy from yesterday’s bounce. There is a bit of respite from the lower volumes with the US markets shut. There is also a feeling that the bears have been stuffed with enough price capitulation as to make the risk of much lower prices less obvious. The usual headlines drive some hope with Italian BTPs bid again despite a lackluster sale today – Italy deputy PM Di Maio sees room for dialogue with EU, perhaps responding finally to the EU sanction risks. UK is bid on the “good progress” seen on Brexit. These are insufficient to keep equities bid in Europe. What seems to be lacking in risk appetite maybe blamed on the inevitable switch to sell bounces rather than buy dips now for risk assets. The chart that maybe worth thinking about in the context of why November is different than the obvious risk-off October comes from AUD/JPY – which clearly broke in October and recovered sharply only now its been seeping slowly back down. While today maybe a write-off for traders, its still worth thinking through what we all should be thankful for in the world, and in our portfolios.

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MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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