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Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK RESEARCH CRYPTO CURRENCY NEWSLETTER: LIKE WATER

The inaugural issue For Track Crypto. What the world doesn’t need is more hype. What this letter intends to deliver is a breakdown of key news in the last week about crypto currencies and the players in the space, a short analysis about that, a few interesting themes that spring up from papers or other research and a summary of fundamental and technical factors for the 3-5 major tradable coins. What will happen in the future depends on your feedback. Please contact me and let me now if this was useful or not, interesting or not. Readers matter more than feelings, you are the key to this continuing. The last week was about Ripple and New York’s Attorney General Report. The splash of XRP running up over 70% in 3 days on hopes for a real and fast settlement tool drives the idea that crypto isn’t just about speculation but also about making mundane financial transactions more efficient. There is no Uber equivalent for Swift and Banks yet in the taxi cab stand of cross-border settlements. Of course, this is a bigger than speed of light issue and as with everything to do about money, time isn’t as important as trust.

MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – LOSING

Knowing how to lose is an essential part of success. If timing is the key for getting into a trade, risk management, or cutting your losses, is the key for getting out. The overnight mood has been one about losing as the US seems to not be winning the trade war. Paradoxically, neither does China. Anyone exposed to global trade suffered last night as China calls off the trade talks with the US ahead of the tariffs and watching to see further US retaliation for their new reactionary tariffs. The ability to reflect all of this headline news was further complicated by the lack of markets as both Japan and China are closed today. This is how losing begins, slowly, then quickly, just like bankruptcy. The focus this morning is on Europe and its lower equities, higher oil prices thanks to OPEC ignoring Trump’s push for more output and the USD is stable thanks to the FOMC meeting later this week. Oil at 4-year highs matters – it will push inflation fears and focus on pass through risks along with margin compression. Growth also remains a concern as trade wars erode confidence. The German IFO was the key economic report overnight and it slipped again, but not as much as feared. The future outlook is still below the current condition indicating slowing momentum. The Italian budget debate rages on and its enveloped the fragile coalition leading to a pain trade in BTPs. The Brexit debate rages on and its led to a plan B for UK May – talk of a snap election. The push for a Canada style free trade deal is next. Of course, today in the US brings more about the US debt and its risks for future trouble as the Treasury sells bills and 2Y notes. The USD focus is on US rates being higher and it’s just not mattering like it did earlier this year. The focus on 93.90 and risk for 92.50 seems obvious and whether that correlation matters to stocks.

THOUGHT PIECE
Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

DIVERGENT – THE BREAKDOWN OF STOCK MARKET CORRELATIONS, TEMP OR PERM?

Emerging market stocks have stabilised, helped by the strength of US equities Rising emerging market bond yields are beginning to attract investor attention US tariffs and domestic tax cuts support US economic growth US$ strength is dampening US inflation, doing the work of the Federal Reserve

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK – GOOD FRIDAY

Today is a holiday and this will be short – there was important news overnight and that will put the holiday weekend in perspective. Happy Easter and Passover. Geopolitics first – Trump threatens the South Korea trade pact if the talks with the North don’t have denuclearization as key. “I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea,” Trump said yesterday in his Ohio speech. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? Because it’s a very strong card.” Economics second – the EU flash inflation was higher in Italy and France while in Japan it was lower. The threat of inflation remains central to rate hiking risks and its just not conclusive for faster action. Markets third – the rally extended in Japan and China overnight for equities. The tech jitters have subsided despite Trump bravado on attacking Amazon yesterday. For trading markets into Monday expect the focus to remain on JPY. The USD/JPY won’t like the threat of talk failures and linking trade success to North Korea. This linkage will clearly extend to China. The rebound in equities this week has been in part due to that hope that the South Korea pact foreshadows China talks. The other point for JPY is in the Tankan where the data on employment and industrial production today highlight risks for a slowing economy and that won’t sit well. If prices don’t go up, the pressure on Abe and the BOJ will accelerate and JPY buying maybe something to watch – 100 before 110? In order for USD bulls to get excited you need to burst back over 107.75 (the 55-day).

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