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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – OVERREACTIONS

Markets overshoot and this maybe the story for today and the USD. Many linked the USD risk reversal yesterday to weaker Philly Fed and more US/China trade fears. Maybe we are in a world of overreactions and the steady and boring world of economics grinds over all such stories in its own time. The selling of the USD has few explanations in the last 24 hours other than the intent of other central bankers to follow the FOMC toward rate normalization. Their talk from the Norges bank promise for a September hike to the BOE pointing towards August was sufficient to cap the USD. Today was about the global PMI flash reports with Europe showing better growth in Services and worse in Manufacturing, net edging up overall GDP view into 3Q, despite the warnings from the IHS Markit on complacency that "underlying trend remains one of slower growth" and business expectations are running" at 18-month lows. There is another story that merits attention for traders – the role of the US/China trade war, the USD and US Treasury role in reserves and the back-channel talks that have been reported widely suggesting a smidge of hope before tariffs kick in. The USD is weaker as a risk barometer as fears of global growth going into reverse ebb like the sun in the Northern Hemisphere. Days are getting shorter like macro attention spans. Throw in today’s other headlines – Greece gets its final nod for debt relief from the EcoFin – pushing back E100bn payments in another extend and pretend deal – Japan CPI remains flat and well below 1% making BOJ 2% seem ever more impossible, and OPEC edges towards an Iran/Saudi oil output compromise leaving the world embracing risk again. The biggest issue for the USD is that it’s the weekend and there is a lack of news leaving the technicals to rule and yesterday’s key-day reversal opens a larger test to 94.25 in play. If markets believe correlation is causality –then expect equities to gain back further as the USD reflects the hopes of trade deals returning with global growth.

THOUGHT PIECE
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ITALY AND THE REPRICING OF EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT DEBT

The yield spread between 10yr BTPs and Bunds widened 114bp in May Populist and anti-EU politics were the catalyst for this repricing of risk Spain, Portugal and Greece all saw yields increase as Bund yields declined The ECB policy of OMT should help to avoid a repeat of 2011/2012

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

TRACK MAY IDEA DINNER – UNSETTLED

The May Track Idea dinner brought together an interesting group of economists, portfolio managers, traders, advisors and investors. The mood was pensive more than ebullient even as the returns for the month were positive again for risk assets, but after the roller coaster of price action across bonds – particularly those of Italy – for equities – particularly those of emerging markets – and for commodities – particularly that of US WTI Oil – no one felt so sure of themselves. The mood captured the unsettled business of politics and policy, of real returns against rising ranges. This was most reflected in the best trades and worst fears where hedged bets were seen as the right path forward.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK – GOOD FRIDAY

Today is a holiday and this will be short – there was important news overnight and that will put the holiday weekend in perspective. Happy Easter and Passover. Geopolitics first – Trump threatens the South Korea trade pact if the talks with the North don’t have denuclearization as key. “I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea,” Trump said yesterday in his Ohio speech. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? Because it’s a very strong card.” Economics second – the EU flash inflation was higher in Italy and France while in Japan it was lower. The threat of inflation remains central to rate hiking risks and its just not conclusive for faster action. Markets third – the rally extended in Japan and China overnight for equities. The tech jitters have subsided despite Trump bravado on attacking Amazon yesterday. For trading markets into Monday expect the focus to remain on JPY. The USD/JPY won’t like the threat of talk failures and linking trade success to North Korea. This linkage will clearly extend to China. The rebound in equities this week has been in part due to that hope that the South Korea pact foreshadows China talks. The other point for JPY is in the Tankan where the data on employment and industrial production today highlight risks for a slowing economy and that won’t sit well. If prices don’t go up, the pressure on Abe and the BOJ will accelerate and JPY buying maybe something to watch – 100 before 110? In order for USD bulls to get excited you need to burst back over 107.75 (the 55-day).

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MARKET RECAP

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