TRACK OFFERS

Superior real-market research, thorough and thoughtful analysis, and a complete suite of premium financial tools tailored to the needs of the serious institutional and individual investor.

If you have an institutional code, click here

forgot your password?
ALREADY REGISTERED?  LOG IN:
MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE WEEKLY TRACK – PLAY-OFFS

The urge to get off the road and wait out the impeding storm has been in play since 2019 started. The FOMO (fear of missing out) was countered by the JOMO (joy of missing out) in December. Memories matter less today to markets, than moods drive them, but both are in the play-offs of bulls and bears as asset markets face a heavy week ahead. The play-off to a bigger game and a bigger risk-reward crunches the odds for the investor like a linebacker. The sport analogy for NFL fans today in the race to the Super Bowl maybe part of the psychology in the US as old school meets new school quarterbacks. There is no one-way to win a game and so too, the race for absolute returns finds many different mixes for risk and return in the race for profits. For the world, play-offs happen all the time. The wall of worry was climbed again last week as China/US trade deal hopes rise even as growth falls. The positioning for equities, FX and rates looks cleaner now than in the bearish start to the year but the momentum higher will need something more in the tank than hope to propel it further. In fact, the gloom over the last quarter has set into forecasts for 1Q leaving it harder to chase the market and believe in the price action. 1H2019 earnings estimates for the S&P500 are now the lowest in 4-years, according to Factset. The bottom-up EPS estimate for the first half of 2019 (1H 2019) decreased by 4.5% (to $81.73 from $85.56) over the past three months. The price action up clashes with the mark down in earnings. There are other anomalies to consider, the FOMC pause in rate hikes versus a cut and the slowing of orders and confidence and the bounce up in 10-year yields against the probabilities of a FOMC rate hike in 2019. The weakness of survey data in Europe against the expectations of a soft-patch bounce back with German auto emissions, Italian political noises and French yellow-vest protests blamed. The optimism in commodities against the weakest growth in China in 28-years based on the hopes for stimulus plans to work again. The rally up in GBP against the worst vote outcome for a Prime Minister in the UK for over 100 years based on the hope for a Brexit delay and potentially reversal with another referendum. Markets are playing off fear and greed with the road to success ahead long and with miles to go before there is another gas station. The week ahead for markets isn’t likely to resolve the clashes of confidence and politics with much certainty like the US

THOUGHT PIECE
Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

A WORLD OF DEBT – WHERE ARE THE RISKS?

Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008 Advanced economies have led the trend Emerging market debt increases have been dominated by China Credit spreads are a key indicator to watch in 2019

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE TRACK CRYPTO WEEKLY – THE DEBATE

Welcome to 2019 and the hope for a digital spring. The thaw of mid-December for crypto currencies has eroded back to winter with crypto obituary season in full freeze. Price action continues to dominate mood for the space. Picture this hot debate and consider the aftermath – on the pro-side Nassim Taleb and on the con-side Nouriel Roubini. Taleb in a recent essay pushes the future of Bitcoin on the basis of autonomy. He notes: It fulfills the needs of the complex system, not because it is a cryptocurrency, but precisely because it has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate. It is owned by the crowd, its users. And it has now a track record of several years, enough for it to be an animal in its own right. Taleb has plenty of fans in the digital space with his reddit ask me anything from 5-years ago proof of his street credibility as a true believer. On the other hand, we have Roubini bashing bitcoin consistently when it was under $10 and going full-throttle in 2018. This is his Milken Institute quote from May during a famous crypto brawl: “There is no decentralization, it’s just bulls–t,” Roubini said, adding that a blockchain is just a “glorified Excel spreadsheet.” The most thoughtful attack from “Dr. Doom” came from his project syndicate piece from October 2018 with Brunello Rosa – something we have discussed before – but merits re-reading for anyone seriously trying to find the counter-argument to decentralization. The most powerful critic about crypto being this: The truth is that the developers have absolute power to act as judge and jury. When something goes wrong in one of their buggy “smart” pseudo-contracts and massive hacking occurs, they simply change the code and “fork” a failing coin into another one by arbitrary fiat, revealing the entire “trustless” enterprise to have been untrustworthy from the start. Perhaps the debate for 2019 is going to veer from BTC to other crypto currencies from stable coins and utility tokens to security tokens and DAO – as decentralized autonomous organization on the blockchain appears to be the key difference between Taleb and Roubini.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK - STUFFED

Thanksgiving holiday in the US comes but once a year but the practice of being thankful should be a daily routine. Markets today are not practicing such and the feeling of being stuffed with food, drink and too much news hangs over any joy from yesterday’s bounce. There is a bit of respite from the lower volumes with the US markets shut. There is also a feeling that the bears have been stuffed with enough price capitulation as to make the risk of much lower prices less obvious. The usual headlines drive some hope with Italian BTPs bid again despite a lackluster sale today – Italy deputy PM Di Maio sees room for dialogue with EU, perhaps responding finally to the EU sanction risks. UK is bid on the “good progress” seen on Brexit. These are insufficient to keep equities bid in Europe. What seems to be lacking in risk appetite maybe blamed on the inevitable switch to sell bounces rather than buy dips now for risk assets. The chart that maybe worth thinking about in the context of why November is different than the obvious risk-off October comes from AUD/JPY – which clearly broke in October and recovered sharply only now its been seeping slowly back down. While today maybe a write-off for traders, its still worth thinking through what we all should be thankful for in the world, and in our portfolios.

X

MEMBERSHIP LEVELS AND BENEFITS

PREMIUM
SUBSCRIPTION
BASIC
SUBSCRIPTION
FREE
REGISTRATION
ACCESS TO UP TO 3 TRACKRESEARCH.COM PREMIER EVENTS PER YEAR ***

Track's Premier Events include Idea Breakfasts, Idea Lunches, and Idea Dinners held in our New York offices and in other cities throughout the world. These are in-person events, including regular dinners, CEO breakfasts, and regional lunches.

X
ACCESS TO TRACKRESEARCH.COM CONFERENCE CALLS AND WEBINARS

Track hosts regular conference calls and webinars. Recordings are made available after each, in a podcast-like format.

X
X
THOUGHT PIECE

Track offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

X
TRADE IDEAS

Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Track monitors the success of all recommendations.

X
MARKET RECAP

Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

X X
OBSERVATION

Markets shift. This is where Track analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

X
X
X
  • ABILITY TO CONTACT AUTHORS
  • PDF ATTACHMENTS WITH NEW ARTICLE ALERTS
X
X
  • ABILITY TO COMMENT ON ARTICLES
  • SAVE ARTICLES FOR LATER READING
  • TRACK ARTICLES & RECEIVE ALERTS
X
X
X
$499.00
PER MONTH
$99.00
PER MONTH
FREE!

READY TO SUBSCRIBE? Select the level that best suits your needs.

If you have an institutional code, click here

PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION BASIC SUBSCRIPTION * FREE REGISTRATION **

* Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription

** Includes a two-week trial of the Premium subscription, followed by a one-week trial of the Basic subscription

*** Attendance at events is limited, and requests to attend will generally be handled on a first-come first-serve basis, with the Track team managing attendance in order to ensure the best possible experience for participants.