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MARKET RECAP
Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

THE MORNING TRACK – TIPPING POINT

For some investors, yesterday was a tipping point as President Trump delivered a rare criticism of the Fed, saying he hoped they would stop raising rates, complaining about USD gains and China. This sent the USD lower as many see the US Treasury intervention risk in further USD gains as possible again – something that brings back talk of a Plaza Accord. The focus on FX and rates continued overnight with China and the CNY running to 12-month lows at 6.8128 only to find intervention over 6.80 and close up 0.1% to 6.7725 on the day. The correlation of CNY to China shares is extreme and the intervention lifted the Shanghai Composite notably today. The European session opened with BTP back in focus as La Repubblica reported that League's Salvini and 5-Star Movement Maio are united against Finance Minister Tria's CDP leader nomination and have threatened to seek Tria's resignation, and also while Corriere Della Sera had an article quoting Claudio Borghi that he is convinced Italy will leave the EUR sooner or later. Like CNY, BTPs reverse when 5SM Maio in an Ansa newswires denies clashing with Tria. While the Italy political back-and-forth drove readers of news, it also delivered volatility. The question is whether this CNY or BTP movement matters just as many yesterday afternoon wondered if Trump’s USD and Rate harangue matters. Politics don’t matter until there is contagion and then disparate things correlate to one like the USD, China trade tariffs and Italian debt – and that is where today starts to be interesting – with the Asia junk bond market beginning to tip over tying into CNY levels and BTP pain. The ICE/BoAML Asian junk bond index represents just $138.1bn – but its trading 2% over the world average and now is over 9%. There are some that will ignore today and find it just another summer Friday, filled with less news, less trading and less reason to bend from just being passively long risk and ignoring politics for now. Tipping points are that way, they surprise, and in FX, the markets are watching a fixed game with the USD/CNY, leaving plenty of room for other better barometers to lead – like EUR/JPY. This maybe the one that makes it a beach day or a bad day with 130.60 key.

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Trackresearch.com offers a virtual research team to the sophisticated investor. This in-depth research presents strategic perspectives about, and derives long-term implications from, economic events, asset class trends, and specific financial market valuations.

CANARY IN THE COAL-MINE - EMERGING MARKET CONTAGION

Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk to Europe and Japan is significant Turkey may be the key market to watch

TRADE IDEAS
Our tactical and (mostly) short-term analysis offers potential trading opportunities in fixed income, foreign exchange, commodity, equity and other asset classes. Technical and fundamental analysis is applied for risk positioning. Trackresearch.com monitors the success of all recommendations.

THE JUNE TRACK IDEA DINNER – FIRST HALVES

Track Research hosted its mid-year idea dinner with an illustrious group of traders, analysts and portfolio managers. This dinner identified a list of 5 negatives for markets and yet ended with many leaving upbeat on the second half with a bit more risk appetite seemingly spurred by the food and wine. There were moments of boisterous bullishness as betting over deserts proved, along with almost abject despair as many saw the decline of Western democracies as inevitable. The role of the USD and the calendar to the mood was also part of the puzzle of where to put risk in 3Q. The US did have half-dollar coins early in its history – and perhaps that early money and how it was used for explosive growth into the next century is an example of where markets are in 2018. Of course, the role of tariffs and trade back then was just as important and maybe the cautionary side tale of the new Trump economy.

OBSERVATIONS
Markets shift. This is where Trackresearch.com analyzes those shifts. These pieces focus on the reactions to particular market sector events, and the issues and data that may cause adverse or unexpected market movements.

THE MORNING TRACK – GOOD FRIDAY

Today is a holiday and this will be short – there was important news overnight and that will put the holiday weekend in perspective. Happy Easter and Passover. Geopolitics first – Trump threatens the South Korea trade pact if the talks with the North don’t have denuclearization as key. “I may hold it up until after a deal is made with North Korea,” Trump said yesterday in his Ohio speech. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? Because it’s a very strong card.” Economics second – the EU flash inflation was higher in Italy and France while in Japan it was lower. The threat of inflation remains central to rate hiking risks and its just not conclusive for faster action. Markets third – the rally extended in Japan and China overnight for equities. The tech jitters have subsided despite Trump bravado on attacking Amazon yesterday. For trading markets into Monday expect the focus to remain on JPY. The USD/JPY won’t like the threat of talk failures and linking trade success to North Korea. This linkage will clearly extend to China. The rebound in equities this week has been in part due to that hope that the South Korea pact foreshadows China talks. The other point for JPY is in the Tankan where the data on employment and industrial production today highlight risks for a slowing economy and that won’t sit well. If prices don’t go up, the pressure on Abe and the BOJ will accelerate and JPY buying maybe something to watch – 100 before 110? In order for USD bulls to get excited you need to burst back over 107.75 (the 55-day).

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Get a head start on tomorrow's headlines. Succinct market analysis, updated frequently, reviewing the factors most responsible for changes in valuation, trends and sentiment, with highlights to the major themes driving market forces.

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